News | August 10, 2021

Brighthospital Introduces Surgical Forecasting Service Gen3


Brighthospital, a leader in advanced surgical forecasting services, today announced the introduction of its Surgical Forecasting Service Gen3. Since 2015, Brighthospital has provided advanced analytical solutions for hospitals to improve their operational performance, focusing on Surgical Services, Emergency Departments and Inpatient Patient Flow.

The latest version will expand the forecasting models to surgeon’s clinics, providing a complete view of their surgical pipeline, starting with already scheduled cases, cases to be scheduled from past clinic visits, and reaching in to forecasted number of surgeries based on clinic-to-surgery conversion rate models by surgeon.

Surgical services are among the highest margin areas for most hospitals. Yet despite its importance and high costs, the methods and tools available to manage OR capacity have not kept pace with evolving needs and technologies.

To address the prospective analytics needs of Surgical Services, Brighthospital introduced Surgical Forecasting Service in 2018, taking the next step in analytical development, utilizing the expertise gathered from retrospective analytics and applied to predictive/ prospective analytics. The first generation concentrated on estimating the number of cases surgical services will perform during the next three weeks, and comparing it to budget requirements. Surgical Forecasting Service used relevant historical case scheduling patterns to create the core model and layered on additional customized forecast models, such as add-on and cancellation rates, to create forecasts that increase accuracy to 3 to 4 weeks.

The second generation of Brighthospital Surgical Forecasting Service, released in 2019, expanded the forecasts to include surgical durations in addition to surgical volume, increased the detail from service level to individual surgeons, and integrated available OR times defined by the block schedules. The addition of these components enabled surgical leadership to see 3-4 weeks into the future to determine the percent of available time that has been scheduled, and analyze prospective block and available time usage by surgeon. Improved dashboards clearly displayed potential “white space” in the surgical schedule weeks to months ahead providing Surgical Services leadership sufficient time to market OR time that would be unused otherwise or right-size their operations days to weeks ahead of the day of surgery. Customers who have implemented Surgical Forecasting Service Gen2 had, for the first time, visibility to the surgical pipeline. They are now able to quickly identify where they are not fully utilized and fill the gaps. It is a game changer in how OR capacity is managed.

Surgical Forecasting Service Gen3 enhances forecast accuracy by processing surgeon clinic visit schedule information with the Brighthospital-developed Clinic to Surgery conversion model which is customized for the individual surgeon’s unique practice. With Surgical Forecasting Service Gen3, leadership can right-size OR capacity, work collaboratively with surgeons and their offices to identify additional cases, or market the unused time to other surgeons within timeframes that are not just weeks, but months ahead. Clinic Managers have clear visibility to their surgeons’ surgical pipeline. Senior administration and finance can see the forecasted budget versus actual performance while making insightful strategic plans, operational decisions, and financial projections.

By starting the forecast with the clinic schedules, hospitals also immediately see the impact of any clinic schedule changes to surgical services. If clinic schedules are impacted by factors such as COVID-19 or surgeon unavailability, the downstream impact is immediately reflected on the forecasts providing unparalleled clarity to hospital leadership.

Hakan Ilkin, Founder of Brighthospital, pointed out that, “The ability to predict surgical capacity is a vital tool for the future of healthcare. It has the ability to change how surgical services demand and capacity are managed. Enhancing the forecast by starting it all the way from surgeon’s clinic schedules, will not only provide thorough visibility to surgical services administration, but also a unique understanding of a surgeon’s practice for practice managers and hospital senior leadership.”

Brighthospital Surgical Forecasting Service Gen3 is a plug and play, fully managed service, and ensures the accuracy of the underlying data and generated forecasts. It can be deployed in less than two weeks with minimal IT staff time required.

About Brighthospital

Brighthospital provides performance improvement models which, combined with our analytics platform, helps hospitals improve the capacity and productivity of their complex operations. Our approach has been used in more than 50 hospitals, and the analytics platform has been refined over the last twenty years to provide rapid answers to critical operational questions.

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